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Israel to Attack Iran, Most Likely by Spring/Summer 2010

First published December 2009

Israel is continuing to send signals that it believes few options remain but to act unilaterally to prevent, or at least delay, Iran from obtaining nuclear capabilities.

Iran’s leaders have made it clear that they do not recognize the Israeli state, nor do they even accept the historical facts surrounding the Holocaust. Iranian president Amademajad has on more than one occasion claimed that Iran will some day wipe Israel from the map.

Recently it has come to light that Iran was hiding a second nuclear development site. Iran allowed the UN to inspect the location but only after taking sufficient time to have removed any signs of weaponry.

Although the IAEA is to visit the site again in December, there is no move on the part of Iran to halt its push for nuclear power. In another provocative move, Iran has now announced it has plans to build 10 more nuclear enrichment plants.

Israel knows that a nuclear-armed Iran will all but guarantee an atomic attack on them. Since the U.S. and other UN members have done little to prevent Iran from gaining nuclear capabilities, Israel will soon find itself in the unfortunate position of acting alone.

By attacking Iran, Israel will be able to send a strong message to the west and the Arab world that they have not lost their ability to defend themselves. Some in the region believe that Israel has lost some of their strength after the ground troop attack on Hezbollah strongholds.

Israel is becoming less and less confident in their long relationship with the U.S. and at this point is unconvinced that the West will do anything meaningful to prevent Iran from becoming nuclear. Outside of military action, the U.S. and other nations have little they can do other than a total blockade of Iran’s economy, which in itself would be an act of war.

Although many believe there will be outrage by Arab states over such an attack, the outrage will be more for show than anything else. Iran is a Muslim country but not an Arab state, and many in the Arab community do not like their rise to power and also fear them becoming a nuclear power. Behind the scenes many of the Arab states will be pleased.

Israel will likely need to fly over Iraqi airspace to accomplish this attack, which will no doubt bring claims that the U.S. is a party to this attack when in fact the current administration has no stomach for such actions.

Oddly, an attack on Iran will likely usher in a Palestinian state. In an attempt to show the world that Israel is not bent on a takeover of the region and is not attacking Islam directly, they will likely concede and move toward giving up more of the West Bank and allowing the creation of a Palestinian state, thus pleasing the Arab world.

However, the radical Islamic world will use this event as an opportunity to recruit more terrorists across the world and to launch more “justifiable” attacks against the U.S.



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August 25, 2009

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